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BTC/USDT — Counter-Trend Base Breakout long
Success rate: 71% (historical data)

EV: 1.34 (lower win rate, larger payoff — sizing accordingly)

R:R: 2.8

We’ve now seen a daily close above $61,300, confirming the base breakout — the trade is in play.

From here, $65,600 could bring a bit of turbulence or short-term resistance on the way up. Further out, $67,300 is the bigger area of interest — that’s the same zone that capped price last time, so it’s where we’d expect the move to really get tested.

Invalidation here would be a daily close back below $58,100 range — that’s what tells us the setup didn’t play out.

Who This Is For

Sample Post

06 July 2026
Jake Rivers – Head Trader
9:42 AM
BTC overnight range $63,901.99–$61,344.62. Price below the 200 EMA, above the 50 EMA — bearish structure on the 4H. Watching the 50 EMA for a loss — if it breaks, continuation lower. Watching the 200 EMA above for a reclaim — if it breaks, structure shifts. Both levels in play. Range until one breaks.
Alex Chen – Quant Lead
2:15 PM
ETF flows +$265.7M BTC. Funding 0.0055% flat. OI 21B, no change. No crowded positioning. Neutral — waiting for the catalyst.
Camila Vasquez – Behavioural Analyst
6:30 PM
Price in a range. Funding 0.0055%. OI 21B flat. ETF flows +$265M. No trigger yet.

While you wait: define the trade before it triggers — entry, stop, target. Don't anticipate the break. Risk a fixed % on the stop, not on conviction. If the range doesn't break in 2–3 days, the setup is dead — move on. Sitting in cash is a position when the rules are set.

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New York
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Risk warning

Trading cryptoassets carries substantial risk. Markets can move quickly and without warning. You can lose some, most, or all of the capital you commit. Past results do not indicate future outcomes. Nothing on this site or in any Alpha Signals Desk community constitutes financial advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of profit. You are fully responsible for your own decisions. Trade only what you can afford to lose.